Market Perspective

The absence of an economic recession in the U.S. economy in 2023 was a surprise to numerous market commentators. Wall Street celebrities like Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Stanley Druckenmiller, Leon Cooperman, and Jeremy Grantham had all publicly predicted a recession that never materialized. In their defense, all predictions are tough unless you are an astronomer predicting the next solar eclipse…

“Inflation, the rise in price – That leaves us feeling not so nice – The value of money starts to fall – And we’re left with less, overall – We hope for better days to come – When prices will stabilize and become Affordable once again – And we can breathe a sigh of relief, amen.”
A poem about inflation, by the newly launched AI-powered chatbot: ChatGPT

Stoic philosopher Epictetus built his life around discipline and equanimity in the face of many challenges. But even he may have been perturbed by the performance of stocks and bonds this year. The third quarter brought more weakness in stocks, with a S&P 500 Index decline of more than 15%. In July, the market rose on a fool’s gold rally fueled by the belief that the Fed might slow or even…

Recession or speed bump? What a difference a year makes. This time last year, technology stocks were still enjoying the tailwinds of the remote-work/reopening trade as the decade-long bull market in growth stocks powered on. Then came rising inflation, rising interest rates, and a plunge in the technology sector that has yet to show signs of recovering. So, after a first half of the year many investors…

In the 1930s radio drama “The Shadow”, the narrator uttered the famous introduction “Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows!” Too bad the Shadow couldn’t have clued us in to Vladimir Putin’s plans for Ukraine. The human cost of the Russian invasion is already tragic, and an affront to those who value peace and democracy around the world. Putin has succeeded…

Like a guest who stays too long at a holiday gathering, inflation proved tough to get rid of in 2021. During the 12 months preceding November, consumer prices increased 6.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s the fastest rate since 1982. While we recognize that inflation is real and could continue for…

More than 18 months into the pandemic, the coronavirus remains a force to be reckoned with. The Delta variant has reignited the coals of the disease’s spread, just when it seemed to be declining in the spring. Total cases and hospitalization rates rose during the summer, triggering the return of social distancing…

It’s the most dangerous drinking game on Wall Street – every time you hear the word “transitory” to describe inflation, tip your glass. In April, Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, used the word himself to describe inflation as being a temporary issue that isn’t poised for a sustained or steep rise.

Historic Multifarious Crises – 2020 was an historic year. The United States and the world faced four substantial crises simultaneously. We began the year in a political crisis with a divided government, citizenry, and a President in the process of being impeached by…

First Responders – In any emergency, the speed and effectiveness of the response is crucial to the outcome. Governments around the world responded in various ways to the outbreak of COVID-19, the first global pandemic (GP) in a century. The effectiveness of…

The Year of the Virus ​ The economic focus in early January was on the trade deal between the US and China and what the next step in US-Global trade policy might look like. Most economists were forecasting steady but slowing global economic growth as the Federal...

  Global Deceleration and Trade ​ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) both regularly publish widely followed economic forecasts for global and country-specific economic growth. Both of their...

  Ongoing Concerns ​ The two main factors driving the stock market in the last nine months have been concerns over monetary policy and the trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Just as we released our winter note, in February, the Fed had signaled that they...

  What a Difference a Year makes ​ A year ago, the tone in the markets was distinctly different than it is today. There was a lot of optimism centered around a year’s worth of global synchronized economic growth and a particularly bright future for the U.S....

The Return of Volatility ​ After a relatively quiet summer for the markets, this October has been a return to more normal levels of volatility for stocks. Meanwhile, the bond market has been steadily losing ground throughout the year. The Federal Reserve has...

Fasten your Seatbelts The market turbulence that began in February has been sustained through the spring with no signs of abating. Investor uncertainty was originally focused on signs of rising inflation, but soon shifted to the aggressive tactics the Trump...

Source: Investing.com ​ Confidence and Complacency ​ The chart above illustrates the price changes in the S&P 500 index for 2017 through March 9, 2018. As an aside, March 9th happens to be the ninth birthday of the current bull market in stocks, which from the...

  As 2017 draws to a close, equities continue their march higher. The cautious optimism that we discussed a year ago has transitioned to into exuberance for stocks. Strong corporate earnings, easy global monetary policy, and tax legislation in the U.S. have been...

As global equities continue to perform well year-to-date, U.S. equities are showing signs of fatigue. Improving global economic fundamentals continue to propel international equity prices higher with Europe, Asia and Emerging market indices being the best performers....