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Investment Notes

Winter 2020/21 Investment Note

Winter 2020/21 Investment Note

Historic Multifarious Crises – 2020 was an historic year. The United States and the world faced four substantial crises simultaneously. We began the year in a political crisis with a divided government, citizenry, and a President in the process of being impeached by…

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Fall 2020 Investment Note

Fall 2020 Investment Note

First Responders – In any emergency, the speed and effectiveness of the response is crucial to the outcome. Governments around the world responded in various ways to the outbreak of COVID-19, the first global pandemic (GP) in a century. The effectiveness of…

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Spring 2020 Investment Note

Spring 2020 Investment Note

The Year of the Virus ​ The economic focus in early January was on the trade deal between the US and China and what the next step in US-Global trade policy might look like. Most economists were forecasting steady but slowing global economic growth as the Federal...

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Fall 2019 Investment Letter

Fall 2019 Investment Letter

Global Deceleration and Trade ​ The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) both regularly publish widely followed economic forecasts for global and country-specific economic growth. Both of their...

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Summer 2019 Investment Letter

Summer 2019 Investment Letter

Ongoing Concerns ​ The two main factors driving the stock market in the last nine months have been concerns over monetary policy and the trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Just as we released our winter note, in February, the Fed had signaled that they would...

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Winter 2019 Investment Letter

Winter 2019 Investment Letter

What a Difference a Year makes ​ A year ago, the tone in the markets was distinctly different than it is today. There was a lot of optimism centered around a year’s worth of global synchronized economic growth and a particularly bright future for the U.S. economy as...

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Fall 2018 Investment Letter

Fall 2018 Investment Letter

The Return of Volatility ​ After a relatively quiet summer for the markets, this October has been a return to more normal levels of volatility for stocks. Meanwhile, the bond market has been steadily losing ground throughout the year. The Federal Reserve has...

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Spring 2018 Investment Letter

Spring 2018 Investment Letter

Fasten your Seatbelts The market turbulence that began in February has been sustained through the spring with no signs of abating. Investor uncertainty was originally focused on signs of rising inflation, but soon shifted to the aggressive tactics the Trump...

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Winter 2018 Investment Letter

Winter 2018 Investment Letter

Source: Investing.com ​ Confidence and Complacency ​ The chart above illustrates the price changes in the S&P 500 index for 2017 through March 9, 2018. As an aside, March 9th happens to be the ninth birthday of the current bull market in stocks, which from the...

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Fall 2017 Investment Letter

Fall 2017 Investment Letter

  As 2017 draws to a close, equities continue their march higher. The cautious optimism that we discussed a year ago has transitioned to into exuberance for stocks. Strong corporate earnings, easy global monetary policy, and tax legislation in the U.S. have been...

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Summer 2017 Investment Letter

Summer 2017 Investment Letter

As global equities continue to perform well year-to-date, U.S. equities are showing signs of fatigue. Improving global economic fundamentals continue to propel international equity prices higher with Europe, Asia and Emerging market indices being the best performers....

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Spring 2017 Investment Letter

Spring 2017 Investment Letter

The cautious optimism that we have observed since the U.S. presidential election last fall continues to sustain itself for investors. However, we have already seen a rotation in performance among asset classes. The underlying economic data suggests that we are still...

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Q4 2016 Investment Letter

Q4 2016 Investment Letter

Greetings, From an investment perspective, 2016 is a year that can be thought of in three acts. The first was dominated by fear and anxiety of global recession. This was driven by a slowing Chinese economy, plummeting oil prices, and a rising U.S. dollar that...

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3rd Quarter 2016 Investment Letter

3rd Quarter 2016 Investment Letter

Greetings, The current market environment is striking a delicate balance between extended valuations in both equities and fixed income investments and modest economic growth globally. Investors appear cautious as cash balances have surpassed levels recorded…

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2nd Quarter 2016 Investment Letter

2nd Quarter 2016 Investment Letter

Greetings, The major themes driving global financial markets over the last year and a half have seemingly begun to shift in subtle, but significant ways. The major themes that we have been following are: ​ Central Bank Monetary Policy Commodity prices Growth...

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